Analysts
excited by Asia’s rising power but warn of economic and political downside risks
Asia’s regional experts
are quite excited about the continued robust growth of the Asian economy as the
economic gravity has moved from the West to the East but warned of several
political and economic downside risks that could lead many countries in the
region into the middle-income trap.
Bank DBS Chief Executive
Officer Piyush Gupta and chief economist David Carbon briefed the around 500
businesspeople and analysts attending the DBS Asian Insights Conference here on
Friday on how the rising power of Asian giants (notably China, India and
Indonesia) would change the structure of the global economy.
Even after the growth in
China now has declined to about 7.6 percent and the expansion in India and
Indonesia has also moderated Asia (excluding Japan) would still put three
Eurozoes (in economic size) on the global economic map within 25 years, Carbon
noted at the first plenary session on Asian giants.
“Asia (excluding Japan)
with a combined gross domestic product of US$16 trillion, or about similar to
the US economy will continue to be the main locomotive of the world economy,”
Carbon added.
However, the four
panelists at the session warned that political divisiveness, indequate pace of
reform measures and inequality in income distribution and asset ownership could
stifle the growth and lead Asian major economies into a middle-income trap.
Two of the paneliss,
Jusuf Wanandi, co-chair of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), and
Tommy Koh, Singapore’s Ambassador at Large, cited the tensions between China,
now the world’s second largest economy, and its neighbors over South China Sea
as a major political downside risk to sustainable growth in the region.
“Indonesia has been
enjoying good relations with China and our bilateral economic ties have been
quite strong, but China seems to have been more assertive now with its rising
power,” Wanandi said.
“How China with its
rising economic power will behave towards its neighbors will impact on the
future economic growth and integration in the egion,” Koh pointed out.
The two other panelists,
Duvvuri Subbarao, former governor of the Reserve of India, and Li Mingjiang,
coordinator of the China Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Relations pointed to the need for a continued high pace of structural reform in
Asia, otherwise many major economies in the region would remain trapped in the
middle-income club.
Subbarao and Mingjiang
shared the views that Asian high growth would be sustainable only if reform and
infrastructure deveopment would be accelerated and clean governance strengthened.
The plenary session was
supposed to focus on the economic issues related to the Asian giants but
participants at the meeting and journalists at a later news conference
bombarded Wanandi with questions about the upcoming presidential elections in
Indonesia and how the outcome would impact on future economic policies.
“To be honest with you I
am a partisan supporter of Jokowi (presidential candidate Joko ‘Jokowi’
Widodo), so please be critical on what I said. But the reality is I don’t want
authoritarian rule back in my country,” Wanandi asserted.
He said the development
concepts of both candidates are strikingly different. While presidential
candidate Prabowo Subianto aspires to restore authoritarian rule as that under
Soeharto, Jokowi has strongly been committed to strengthening the democracy
process.
“The most pressing
problem now is how to prevent cheating in the voting, without which Prabowo
will never win,” Wanandi added. (sumber : http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/04/analysts-excited-asia-s-rising-power-warn-economic-and-political-downside-risks.html)
Opini : DBS bank held
Conference to consider how Asian economic position in the future as asia mainly
China has an economy that is good enough in a country like America to
compensate. Indonesia was expected to boost the economy in the future.